◆Geometric probability of Greece exiting the euro zone

　　 Citigroup Global Chief Economist William · Bit: The probability of Greece exiting the Eurozone is between 50% and 75%. The time may be in the second half of this year or the first half of next year. The key to the process lies in Greece in June. Election results and the policy direction of the government in power.

　　“Doctor Doom”Nuriel· Roubini: Greece may exit the euro area next year, and the euro area will eventually disintegrate, and two to three countries will exit the euro area in the next few years.

　　 Nikola · Bori, professor of economics at the University of Louise, Italy: The risk of Greece's exit from the euro zone has indeed increased significantly, but since the exit will do more harm than good to both Greece and the euro zone, Greece should eventually stay.

　　Jacob · Kirkkog, a researcher at the Peterson Institute for International Economics in the United States: Greece is unlikely to leave the euro zone this year. The coalition of political parties that supports austerity policies has a better chance of winning in the June elections. Even if the left-wing parties that oppose austerity policies win the election, it is still unlikely that Greece will completely withdraw from the euro area. Greece may continue to stay in the euro area, but it will lose external aid.

　　◆China has begun to act?

　　According to media reports, the Chinese government has ordered the study of Greece’s response to its withdrawal from the Eurozone. The specific contents include maintaining the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate, strengthening the supervision of cross-border capital flows, and introducing measures to further stabilize the economy.

　　The source said: "This is very urgent. The central government requires each department to analyze the measures to deal with Greece's Brexit and put forward their own proposals as soon as possible. "A research director of a Chinese bank in Hong Kong also revealed that at present, every bank provides a daily briefing on the global financial market for the reference of relevant government departments.

　　 It is reported that some Chinese state-owned banks, including ICBC, Bank of China, and Bank of Communications, have reduced their lending and derivative transactions with Societe Generale, BNP Paribas, and Crédit Agricole, and at least one of these banks has reduced their relationship with Switzerland. Bank transactions. These large Chinese banks took the above-mentioned measures at the end of last year and early this year.

　　 At the height of the global financial crisis in 2008, some Chinese banks, including Bank of China, were severely impacted because they failed to cut their exposure to Lehman Brothers Holdings in time.

　　◆Experts comment on the impact of Greece's withdrawal on China

　　 Yu Yongding, member of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences: China should consider measures such as capital control, temporary market closure and emergency liquidity injection

　　 China must deal with the problem of massive unemployment in the export sector caused by the decline in exports. It should consider measures such as capital controls, temporary market closures, and emergency liquidity injection. Net foreign capital inflows will decrease at least in the next few quarters, so the central bank must maintain a countercyclical policy to avoid deflation.

　　Zhou Xiaochuan: The Three-Chain Vicious Circle”The predicament has yet to be resolved

　　The European debt crisis is not over. Many policy stimulus measures are temporary and space is limited. Fundamentally speaking, the prospect of the European debt crisis depends on whether the heavily indebted countries can regain their competitiveness through structural reforms, whether they can achieve fiscal sustainability through economic growth, and whether the banking system can get rid of various drags and expand credit. . However, the dilemma of the so-called "three-link vicious circle" of fiscal austerity, economic downturn, and decline in bank lending capacity has yet to be resolved. Achieving the above goals requires a process, and there is greater uncertainty.

　　CICC: China’s economic growth will fall to 6.5% this year, triggering domestic deflation

　　Greece’s default will detonate the global financial crisis, which is half the severity of the Lehman crisis; if Greece leaves the European Union, China’s economic growth will fall to 6.5% this year. Since the 2008 financial crisis, China has repeatedly reduced its holdings of US dollar foreign exchange reserves and increased its holdings of euros, including Greek government bonds. The banking industry also has huge exposure to them. These assets face major risks of exchange rate and capital loss. In addition to exchange losses, soaring bond yields and default capital losses, the global wave of risk aversion triggered by Greece’s departure from the euro zone will also lead to capital flight, triggering domestic deflation.

　　In order to deal with European debt risks, Europe is drawing back global capital; as global risk appetite declines, China may face increased pressure for capital outflows. A large amount of capital outflows in the short term will bring pressure on the depreciation of the renminbi and tighten domestic monetary conditions, raise the cost of capital in the private sector, lead to a slowdown in private investment, and increase the pressure on China's economic growth to further decline.

　　 The slowdown in external demand, capital outflows and lower commodity prices will increase the pressure and space for China's policy relaxation, and the macro countercyclical operations will increase.

　　Orient Securities: China will experience a long-term capital outflow

　　As the European debt crisis worsens, China will experience a longer period of capital outflow. In addition, the outflow of hot money will lead to monetary tightening, and the market will show a pattern of "loose money-tight credit". In 2012, the growth rate of M2 will only be 12%, and the corresponding incremental loan-to-deposit ratio will be 83%. The pressure on the bank's loan-to-deposit ratio will continue to rise.

　　 Zhang Yansheng, Director of the Institute of Foreign Economic Relations of the National Development and Reform Commission: Domestic exporters are facing long-term difficulties

　　 Once Greece does withdraw from the euro zone, those domestic exporters who rely on exports to Europe for survival will face a difficult time of about 5 months, which is similar to the previous situation in 2008-2009.

　　Jingsu Media Chief Analyst Cai Enze: The domino effect has a profound impact on the overall market

　　 China’s trade volume with Greece is very small, and there is almost no purchase of related Greek debt. The withdrawal of Greece from the Eurozone alone does not seem to have a significant impact on the Chinese economy. However, if a domino effect occurs, it will cause the chain benefits and spread of fear in other countries in the euro area, which may increase the risk of default and have a profound impact on the overall market. In addition, if there is a major turmoil in the euro area, the recovery of the world economy will face greater uncertainty, and it will be difficult for China to survive alone.

　　Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics Professor Peng Yurong Yuan Rukun: Four major adverse effects

　　 1. China’s foreign trade is declining. At the same time, in order to protect the physical industries in the region, the EU will suffer inevitable losses. It is very likely that protective measures will be taken to create trade barriers and trade disputes will increase.

　　 2. The risk of capital outflow has increased. The "hot money" flowing into China will flow out of China's economic system to seek other profit opportunities, which will bring risks of RMB depreciation and domestic base currency tightening, which will increase domestic financing costs.

　　 Third, increase the cost of China’s monetary policy adjustment. The vicious impact of Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone on the global economy will drastically suppress the prices of commodities, increase the cost of adjustment of China's monetary policy, and greatly increase the cost of policy.

　　 Fourth, Euro assets have shrunk sharply. Although China holds a small amount of Greek bonds, China holds euro assets with a total value of more than 660 billion US dollars. If Greece withdraws, the expected depreciation of the euro will be greatly increased, accounting for 20%-25% of China’s foreign exchange reserves. Assets will face the risk of shrinking, causing foreign exchange losses.

　　 HSBC Global Capital Markets Asia Pacific Wealth Strategy Director Ye Jianxiong: Gold prices will be impacted

　　If Greece exits the euro zone, the first reaction to gold prices is to fall, and the euro will also weaken. However, if Greece's departure from the euro zone does not affect other member states, and the euro zone seems to benefit from Greece's departure, the decline in gold prices will not last. If Greece's withdrawal from the euro zone spreads to other countries, it will be very beneficial to gold prices. In extreme cases, if the euro plan is questioned or the withdrawal of Greece causes other member states to withdraw one after another, investors may once again pour into the US dollar and the gold market to avoid risks at the same time.

　　 Political Commissar Lu, Chief Economist of Industrial Bank: Will cause liquidity tension in China

　　If Greece exits the Eurozone, the impact on China will mainly be a shrinking foreign trade, capital outflows, tight liquidity, and rising risks in foreign exchange assets.

　　◆SMM Comment: If Greece Brexit, the non-ferrous metals market will be hit

　　The capital market will be directly impacted

　　 There is no doubt that the Greek crisis will cause significant price fluctuations and shocks in the global commodity market. Commodities such as energy and non-ferrous metals will be hit hard in the first place, and Chinese companies that are more closely related to them will once again withstand the severe test of the market .

　　If Greece leaves the European Union, it will give rise to a shift in global capital risk appetite and a resurgence in risk aversion, which will be transmitted to the domestic stock market and futures market. And this kind of market pessimism may further dampen investment and consumer confidence, exacerbate the outflow of capital in the non-ferrous metal capital market, and further adversely affect the real economy.

　　From a macroeconomic perspective, as China is implementing macro-control with the transformation of economic development mode and adjustment of economic structure as the main line, the regulation of real estate has slowed its growth momentum. The slowdown in exports will not only weaken the growth momentum of the export sector, but also weaken the growth momentum of the upstream and downstream related sectors that provide energy, raw materials and ancillary products for them, which will have a great negative impact on China's economic growth. However, given that the export of major non-ferrous metals is strictly protected by the state, this part of the impact is not expected to be very strong.

　　 Downstream industries will suffer an indirect blow

　　 From a micro level, the production and export of enterprises dominated by labor-intensive and some capital-intensive products will suffer. Especially in the downstream application industries of non-ferrous metals such as electronic products, auto parts, photovoltaic industry, and home appliances. Once the export of these products is severely blocked and the domestic consumption capacity is limited, the already weak downstream demand for non-ferrous metals will shrink further, and the entire industry chain will be under tremendous pressure.