SMM News: More and more signals are released, and the downward trend of the deposit reserve ratio (hereinafter referred to as the RRR) becomes more and more obvious. In the first half of 2012, at least two reductions in the RRR has become the consensus of the industry.

　　 Deposit accuracy rate has been lowered several times

　　 will become a high probability event next year

　　 Data released by the Central Bank on Monday showed that in November, China’s central bank and financial institutions’ foreign exchange holdings decreased by RMB 27.9 billion (US$4.4 billion), indicating a second consecutive month of net outflows of foreign capital. The net decrease in foreign exchange accounts for two consecutive months has returned to the trend of the past few years. The continuous inflow of overseas funds before has exacerbated the excess liquidity in the domestic market. For this reason, the central bank has continuously raised the deposit rate of the banking industry to withdraw this liquidity.

　　 According to another analysis, the open market maturity volume this week was 13 billion yuan, including 2 billion yuan of 3-month central bills, 1 billion yuan of 1-year central bills, and 10 billion yuan of 28-day repurchase. As the central bank issued a one-year bill of 4 billion yuan on Tuesday, and suspended the repurchase operation. If there are no other open market operations, based on this calculation, the central bank will invest 9 billion yuan in net funds through the open market this week. Prior to this, the central bank had withdrawn funds from the market for four consecutive weeks. Analysts said that the suspension of central bank bills this issue may signal the central bank's recent downgrade of deposit standards.

　　 On December 28, the Bank of China released the "Economic and Financial Outlook for the First Quarter of 2012", stating that the RRR is expected to be lowered more than twice in the first half of 2012, and the possibility of interest rate adjustments in the near future is unlikely, and interest rates will remain generally stable in the short term. .

　　 HSBC Global Research said that the central bank is expected to take decisive measures in the next few quarters. The RRR will be lowered at least three more times in the next six months, and the next reduction may occur in the next few weeks.

　　 HSBC believes that continued capital outflow means that the central bank’s foreign exchange holdings will continue to shrink or even reverse, thus eliminating a major source of China’s base currency expansion. However, as the inflation rate and economic growth both fall back, the Chinese government needs to adopt a loose monetary policy to reduce the risk of a decline in economic growth next year.

　　 Many other experts have also expressed the same view before.

　　 Wu Xiaoling, vice chairman of the Finance Committee of the National People’s Congress and former deputy governor of the People’s Bank of China, believes that the slowdown in China’s economic growth in 2012 is an inevitable trend, and I believe that next year, we will use more deposit-based ratios.

　　 But she pointed out that the successive reductions in the RRR for the next year do not mean a policy shift. She analyzed that if the increase in foreign exchange accounts for next year is too small or declines, the central bank must release liquidity through the deposit reserve ratio to make the currency turn. If the deposit reserve ratio is lowered several times next year, it does not mean a policy shift.

　　 Professor Guo Tianyong of the School of Finance of Central University of Finance and Economics recently stated on Weibo that there was a deficit in foreign exchange settlement and sales on behalf of banks, which reflected the same problem as the decline in the central bank’s foreign exchange holdings. Due to unstable external demand, the growth rate of exports will continue to decline in the first quarter of next year, and there may be a trade deficit, so the decline in foreign exchange holdings may continue for some time. Taking into account the Spring Festival factor and the significant reduction in open market maturing funds at the beginning of next year, the central bank may further reduce the deposit reserve ratio in the near future, and it does not rule out the possibility of reducing it by 1% at a time.

　　 HSBC Greater China chief economist Qu Hongbin also stated on Weibo that interest rates in the inter-bank market have risen, capital shortages have recurred at the end of the year, and signs of an accelerated economic downturn appear, export orders have fallen by 30%, and currency relaxation needs to increase. The RRR cut again is just around the corner.

　　 Political commissar Lu, chief economist of Industrial Bank, pointed out in an interview with reporters that if the central bank tries to build policy space for the next round of austerity next year, so as to exchange central bank bills for a greater decline in the reserve ratio, the number of times the statutory deposit ratio will be lowered It may reach as many as 10 times.

　　“But the prerequisite is very important. This is that there will be no major fluctuations in the economy next year. At least until the end of the first quarter, the U.S. dollar will remain strong. "He said.

　　 But at the same time, he also pointed out that if there is an extreme situation and exports are below 10% throughout the year, then the central bank will not rule out a large amount of liquidity in the second quarter.

　　Bank liquidity

　　Next year may be “replenish water”

　　Analysis believes that lowering the RRR will help ease the tight liquidity situation in the banking system and help increase bank credit.

　　 More experts believe that next year's deposit rate may drop 4 times, which means that 1.6 trillion liquidity may be released.

　　“Of course, under normal circumstances, if the deposit reserve ratio drops several times next year, the bank’s liquidity will be better than this year, but it does not correspond to the bank’s excess liquidity. More performance is the replenishment of water to adjust the drought. "Lu Political Commissar said.

　　 Bank of Communications chief economist Lian Ping pointed out that loan yields are expected to decline in 2012. New loans for the whole year will be 8 to 8.5 trillion yuan, and the balance will increase by 14.5-15.5% year-on-year, a slowdown from 2011.

　　 It is reported that the current market generally expects that the scale of credit next year will be slightly larger than this year, especially the credit resources will be mainly tilted towards small and medium-sized enterprises. According to media reports, bank sources revealed that when determining the scale of credit next year, most banks direct 30% to 50% of new loans to small and medium-sized enterprises.