London Copper and New York Futures Copper Set New Highs in 2011, Expected to Continue to Strengthen
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- Time of issue:2011-01-03
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(Summary description) It was reported on December 31 that the New York copper futures set a record high on Friday, reaching a record high for the fourth time in five days. The London copper futures also set a record high, and the Shanghai copper rose above the 41-month high.
London Copper and New York Futures Copper Set New Highs in 2011, Expected to Continue to Strengthen
(Summary description) It was reported on December 31 that the New York copper futures set a record high on Friday, reaching a record high for the fourth time in five days. The London copper futures also set a record high, and the Shanghai copper rose above the 41-month high.
- Categories:Industry News
- Author:
- Origin:
- Time of issue:2011-01-03
- Views:0
It was reported on December 31 that the New York copper futures set a record high on Friday, reaching a record high for the fourth time in five days. The London copper futures also set a record high, and the Shanghai copper rose above the 41-month high.
0350 GMT, LME three-month copper was quoted at US$9,570 per ton, higher than Thursday’s closing price of US$9,490. Earlier, copper futures hit a record high of $9,580.
Jinrui Futures analyst Guo Yong said that if there is no major macro news that triggers serious risk aversion, copper prices will continue to rise steadily, with technical corrections during the period. The market expects that the supply will be tight next year, which is reflected in the LME copper spot price premium of 50-60 US dollars compared with the futures copper. But in China, the spot price is 800 yuan lower than the futures price.
He pointed out that the difference was because China built a large amount of inventory in 2009, which also explained that Chinese consumers are unwilling to chase copper prices above 70,000 yuan. The arbitrage window may still be closed in the second quarter of next year, after which the copper stocks in the market will be digested.
Comex copper futures jumped 0.8% earlier, hitting a high of 439.60 cents per pound, and Shanghai copper futures traded at 71,060 yuan, the highest level since mid-2007. After that, COMEX copper and Shanghai copper fell to 439.10 cents and 70,990 yuan per ton respectively.
A technical analyst said that the technical side is mixed, but the market may be as high as $10,000-12,500. He said that the market needs time to correct, or fall back to 8,700 US dollars, and then rise to 10,000 US dollars.
The moderate rise in the euro and the new high of the renminbi also supported copper prices. The renminbi hit a record high of 6.6227 yuan against the dollar.
Copper futures recorded a 14% increase in December, the largest annual increase since July 2009, and may become the lead for the increase in 2011.
Tight supply will support prices, and most market observers expect prices to hit the five-digit mark in 2011. LME copper stocks have fallen from the level of 370,000 tons at the beginning of this year, and are expected to decrease again after rising in December.
A Singaporean dealer said that people believe that copper prices will undoubtedly rise in 2011. I think copper prices will rise sharply in the first half of the year, and copper prices may rise to US$12,000.
The supply situation is very unstable. Any problems in the mines, the accelerated recovery of the US and European economies, or the easing of the Eurozone debt crisis will affect the balance of the market and lead to a larger gap than people expected.
Analysts expect copper demand to exceed supply by 250,000-800,000 tons, but some people are cautious about the outlook, saying that after two consecutive years of rising, whether the metal performance in 2011 will be as strong as 2010 is questionable.
A Singaporean dealer said that metals have performed very well this year. If I were a fund manager, I might not bet heavily on metal futures in the new year. Everyone thinks that metal prices will skyrocket, but I think the performance at the beginning of the year may be very good-metal prices have risen too much in the past two years.
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