1. The profit growth rate of the oil extraction industry continued to fall, and the profit decline of the oil processing industry narrowed.

　　 From January to August, the profit of the oil and gas extraction industry increased by 93.2% year-on-year, an increase of 73.6 percentage points from January to May; the profit of the oil and gas extraction industry in 24 regions from January to September increased by 81.4% year-on-year, an increase rate It was 17 percentage points lower than that from January to August, and profit in September fell again year-on-year. This year, international crude oil prices have narrowed their volatility, operating between US$70-85 for most of the time. Even after the Fed implemented the second round of quantitative easing monetary policy, oil prices have not risen significantly, and the trend is weaker than other commodities.

　　From the perspective of demand, the economies of emerging countries have recovered quickly, and oil demand has returned to the level before the financial crisis as a whole. The increase in oil prices is not strong, mainly because the increase in oil supply has stabilized prices. China's crude oil production has increased by 6.1% year-on-year to the end of October, which is higher than the increase in previous years; OPEC's crude oil production has increased, and the reduction in production compliance rate has dropped from 82.4% in March last year to the current 55%. Based on the analysis of the current situation, the international crude oil price in the fourth quarter may still fluctuate around the current US$80, and the profit growth rate of the oil and natural gas extraction industry for the whole year will continue to fall.

　　 This year, the domestic refined oil market fluctuates greatly. Affected by macroeconomic control, the growth rate of apparent consumption continued to decline in the first half of the year, and the profit of the petroleum processing industry declined. From January to May, the profit of the petroleum processing industry fell by 25.7% year-on-year, 1-8 The monthly profit decline further expanded to 39.1%. The situation has changed significantly in the past two months. The demand for refined oil market has increased significantly. Diesel consumption is strong, and social diesel stocks have declined and are at a low level. Diesel production increased sharply in October, but it has not been significantly eased. The important reason for this situation is that some areas have cut off power to complete the "Eleventh Five-Year Plan" energy-saving indicators, resulting in a substantial increase in the demand for diesel for power generation. As energy-saving and emission-reduction efforts will not be significantly relaxed before the end of December, therefore, The diesel shortage caused by power cuts may not be significantly alleviated in the short term.

　　From the perspective of industry benefits, the profit situation of the petroleum processing industry improved significantly in August and September. The decline in the profit of the petroleum processing industry in August narrowed significantly, and the profit in September turned from a decline to an increase. The profit of the petroleum processing industry in August and September also increased substantially compared with that in July. It is expected that the profits of the petroleum processing industry in the fourth quarter will stop falling and recover from the same period last year, but the decline in profits for the whole year will remain unchanged.

　　Second, "cold winter" is expected to cause coal prices to rise and the profit of the thermal power industry to decline.

　　 Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of raw coal production has gradually declined and then rebounded. Coal demand has fallen steadily, but coal prices have been relatively strong. In mid-September, the price of thermal coal began a new round of increase, coal imports increased, and exports decreased. In the month, the net import of coal was more than 13 million tons; in October, the inventory of coal enterprises decreased by more than 2 million tons from the previous month. At the same time, the average daily coal consumption of key national power generation companies in October decreased by nearly 60,000 tons compared with September, a drop of 2%. The average daily output of major coal-consuming products such as pig iron, cement, and coke also decreased month-on-month in October.

　　This contradictory trend is mainly due to the “cold winter” expectation. Driven by the "cold winter" expectation, the main coal industry is to store coal in preparation for the winter, and has adopted more and early storage actions, which has increased the abnormal demand for coal in a short period of time. In particular, some small and medium-sized coal-consuming companies in the southern coastal areas have increased their coal procurement efforts. At the end of October, the country's key power generation companies also set a record high in coal inventory, which increased significantly from the previous month, and the coal inventory of major ports also increased significantly from the previous month. Coal freight rates and international coal prices also contributed to the flames, rising simultaneously.

　　 The market outlook judges that the coal market is adequately supplied. The annual raw coal output is expected to reach more than 3.3 billion tons. Coal imports will remain large. The increase in energy conservation and emission reduction efforts before the end of the year will curb coal demand this winter and will not support coal prices. Further higher. It is expected that coal prices will stabilize, and prices will not continue to rise sharply before the end of the year. From the perspective of coal industry profits, monthly profits this year have been relatively stable. The decline in coal production growth has offset some of the benefits of price increases. .

　　 Since the beginning of this year, the growth rate of power generation has continued to fall sharply. It has fallen from 26.9% at the end of last year to 5.9% in October this year, and the growth rate of thermal power generation has dropped from the peak of 38.8% to October this year. The decrease of 0.6%. The trend of large fluctuations and the base factor of last year led to a significant decline in the profit growth of the power industry. From January to August, the profit of the power industry increased by 119.5% year-on-year, which was 142 percentage points lower than that in the first five months. Among them, the thermal power industry was affected by high coal prices, and the profit from January to August fell by 17.9% year-on-year (from June to August, it fell by 66%, which was another decline since the rebound at the beginning of last year). Due to the increase in non-residential electricity prices in November last year, the profits of power grid companies have increased significantly this year, but with the disappearance of this base factor, the profit growth of the entire power industry will continue to fall in the fourth quarter.

　　 While the growth rate of thermal power generation continues to decline this year, hydropower generation is growing rapidly, and the proportion of clean energy investment is rising rapidly. The proportion of clean energy investment in hydropower, nuclear power, wind power, and solar power in power investment has risen to 62.8%. Investment fell for the first time. In the first eight months, the profit of hydropower increased by 45% year-on-year, and the profit of clean energy power generation such as wind power and solar power increased by nearly 100%.

　　 In October, the electricity consumption of the whole society decreased by nearly 10 billion kilowatt-hours compared with September, and the electricity consumption of most provinces decreased month-on-month. Except for seasonal factors, it was mainly due to the increase of the gates to achieve energy-saving and emission-reduction targets in some regions. Limited power capacity, the decline in power generation caused by this factor may continue until the end of the year.

　　3. The profit of the steel and non-ferrous metal industries rebounded from the previous month.

　　 From April to July of this year, the prices of major metals such as steel, copper, and aluminum continued to decline under the pressure of the macro-control of the real estate market, and then fluctuated upwards driven by loose liquidity and cost, showing a first decline and then an increase“ N” type fluctuation trend. From mid-April to late July, steel prices fell for 12 consecutive weeks under the direct influence of the state's regulation of the real estate market prices, and non-ferrous metal prices also fluctuated downwards; July and August were supported by reduced production and supply and cost-driven, steel, non-ferrous metals Prices fluctuated and rebounded; September and October, driven by the Fed's quantitative easing policy, commodity prices rose significantly across the board.

　　 Affected by the fall in prices from May to July, the profit of the steel and non-ferrous metal industries declined for three consecutive months. The monthly profit of the steel industry fell from 17 billion yuan in April to 15.6 billion yuan in May and 10.6 billion yuan in June. The monthly profit of the non-ferrous metals industry fell from 8.1 billion yuan in April to 7.3 billion yuan in May, 5.9 billion yuan in June and 5.8 billion yuan in July.

　　 As the prices of steel and non-ferrous metals rebounded after August, the monthly profits of the steel industry in August and September were 7 billion yuan and 11.2 billion yuan, and the monthly profits of the non-ferrous metal industry were 6.3 billion yuan and 8.2 billion yuan, respectively. The month-on-month ratio rebounded significantly. Metal prices continued to rise significantly in October. It can be expected that the monthly profits of the steel and non-ferrous metal industries in July will be the bottom of this year, and the momentum of a ring-on-month rebound in profits is basically established.

　　As the prices of steel and non-ferrous metals have risen, the supply has not increased. The increase in energy conservation and emission reduction has restricted the production of some enterprises, and the production growth of steel and non-ferrous metals has continued to fluctuate and decline. The growth rate of steel production dropped sharply from 31.5% in the first half of the first half to 4.1% in October. The growth rate of ten non-ferrous metal production dropped from 34.1% in the first half of the first half to 2.8% in October. The output of electrolytic aluminum dropped from an increase. The increase of 57.4% at the peak of the six months turned into a decline of 5.4% in October. This reduction in supply has played a major role in supporting the price recovery.

　　 From January to August, the profit of the steel industry and the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry increased by 1 and 1.2 times respectively year-on-year. Due to the excessive increase in profits in the first half of the year due to base factors, the profit growth rate will continue to decline in the next few months, but The annual profit growth rate is still at a relatively high level. The annual profit of the steel industry is expected to increase by more than 50%, and the annual profit of the non-ferrous metal smelting and rolling processing industry is expected to increase by 70%.

　　Fourth, the profit of the chemical and building materials industries rebounded from the previous month.

　　 Following the volatility in chemical product prices in August and September, the price of chemical products in October showed a general upward trend, and the rate of increase expanded. Among them, the price of chemical fertilizers rebounded sharply from the low level. The average price of urea in the month hit a 19-month high, month-on-month. The average price of monoamine phosphate rose by 27.5% month-on-month; the average price of diamine phosphate increased by 6.7% month-on-month; the average price of potassium chloride rose by 11.8% month-on-month; the average price of 45% amino compound fertilizer increased by 10% month-on-month.

　　 The price of basic chemical raw materials has risen strongly, especially for sulfuric acid, sulfur, methanol, etc. The average price of sulfuric acid market has risen by 20% month-on-month; the average price of soda ash has increased by 10.3% month-on-month; the average price of calcium carbide has increased by 15.2% month-on-month; The average price of sulfur in the market rose by 21.7% month-on-month and 141% year-on-year. Propylene prices continued to rise sharply, with the monthly average price rising 10.1% month-on-month; the average price of pure benzene rose 13.1% month-on-month; the average price of styrene rose 10.8% month-on-month; the average price of methanol rose 17.3% month-on-month.

　　 In October, the market price of synthetic resins rose sharply, and the market price of synthetic fiber raw materials continued to rise. The average price of PVC rose 14.7% month-on-month; the average price of polypropylene rose 5% month-on-month; the average price of caprolactam increased month-on-month 6%.

　　 Rubber and tire prices have also risen significantly. The average price of natural rubber in October was close to 30,000 yuan/ton, a record high, up 16.4% month-on-month; average price of styrene butadiene rubber increased 17.2% month-on-month; average price of radial truck tires increased month-on-month 2.1%; the average price of car radial tires rose by 9.9% month-on-month.

　　 Stimulated by price increases, the monthly profits of the chemical industry in August and September were 18.5 billion yuan and 24.3 billion yuan, up 20% and 31% month-on-month, respectively. It is expected that profits will continue to rise in October.

　　 The price of chemical products has risen sharply. First, the output of soda ash, calcium carbide, methanol, etc. has decreased significantly due to the impact of energy-saving and emission reduction policies; the second is that the price of raw materials has increased the cost; the third is the price of some products such as sulfur. There are speculation elements, and the fundamentals of supply and demand do not support such a large increase.

　　 Cement prices have risen steadily in the first seven months of this year. However, after August, due to the impact of energy conservation, emission reduction, power supply and production restrictions, cement prices have soared in some areas, especially in the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta, Hainan, Xinjiang and other places. The price has increased significantly. The prices of building materials such as flat glass, concrete components, technical glass, sanitary ceramics, and fiberglass also fluctuated upward.

　　 From the year-on-year growth rate of profit, the profit of the chemical industry increased by 49.6% from January to August, the profit of the chemical fiber industry increased by 103.4%, and the profit of the building materials industry increased by 49%. , But the profit in August and September showed a momentum of growth from the previous month, and the year-on-year growth rate of profit from September has no longer continued to fall. A higher level of growth.

　　 The chemical and building materials sub-sectors with higher profit growth this year will be mainly concentrated in the production of inorganic and organic chemical raw materials, synthetic fiber single (polymer) manufacturing, information chemical manufacturing, synthetic fiber manufacturing, and flat glass among basic chemical raw materials. Manufacturing, technical glass manufacturing, glass fiber and product manufacturing, sanitary ceramics and product manufacturing, etc. The profits of chemical fertilizers, pesticides, synthetic rubber, tires, cement and other industries will also increase to a certain extent.

　　Fifth, the profit growth rate of equipment manufacturing industry is relatively high, and the growth of special equipment is stable.

　　 The equipment manufacturing industry’s production and profit growth this year was significantly higher than last year’s and the overall industrial level, but it fell from the previous month. From January to October, the equipment manufacturing industry’s added value increased by 21.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 5.3 percentage points higher than that of the entire industry. , But it was down 2 percentage points from the first half of the year; the profit of equipment manufacturing from January to August increased by 63.6% year-on-year, which was 8.6 percentage points higher than that of the entire industry, but it was also down from January to May.

　　Exports maintained rapid growth. In the first three quarters, the export delivery value of the equipment manufacturing industry increased by 30.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate was 1.4 percentage points higher than that in the first half of the year. Customs exports of mechanical and electrical products increased by 34.5%. On the whole, the equipment manufacturing industry’s production, export, and profit growth rates are in a relatively high business cycle. Although some indicators have fallen from a month-on-month basis, the decline is much smaller than that of heavy industrial industries such as steel and non-ferrous metals.

　　 From January to August, in the equipment manufacturing industry, the profit of the metal products industry increased by 56%, the profit of general equipment manufacturing increased by 48.5%, the profit of special equipment manufacturing increased by 61.4%, the profit of transportation equipment manufacturing increased by 80.7%, and the profit of electrical The profit of the machinery and equipment manufacturing industry increased by 36.7%, and the profit of the instrument, cultural, and office machinery manufacturing industry increased by 59%.

　　 Compared with the first five months, the profit growth rate has fallen sharply, mainly in the transportation equipment manufacturing industry, instrumentation and culture, office machinery manufacturing industry. From April to August, the month-on-month automotive production declined for 5 consecutive months. , The year-on-year growth rate of shipbuilding completion in the first three quarters fell sharply compared with the first half of the year. However, in September and October, automobile production rebounded significantly month-on-month, and the year-on-year growth rate also stopped falling and rebounded. Therefore, although the production and profit growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry this year shows a trend of "high before and low", the decline is smaller than that of other heavy industry industries. In particular, the profit growth rate of the special equipment manufacturing industry in the fourth quarter will remain at the same level as that in the third quarter. Do not continue to fall back. The production and profit growth rate of the equipment manufacturing industry will remain at a relatively high level throughout the year.

　　 From January to October, among the 119 major equipment manufacturing products in the statistics, 86 of the products with double-digit growth or more were produced, accounting for 72.3%. The industries with the fastest growth in sales revenue mainly include containers, Construction machinery, automobiles, and some special equipment, etc., have a growth rate of more than 50%; the industries with the highest profit growth are mainly containers, construction machinery, automobiles, metal forming machine tools, and gas compressors.Machinery, bearings, plastic processing machinery, wood processing machinery, textile machinery, sewing machinery, etc., the profit growth rate is more than 100%.

　　Six. Production in the electronics industry has grown rapidly, and exports have clearly recovered.

　　 The electronics industry's production has grown rapidly this year. From January to October, the added value of the communications equipment, computer and other electronic equipment manufacturing industries increased by 17.7% year-on-year, and the growth rate accelerated by 15.2 percentage points year-on-year. Exports have clearly recovered. From January to October, the export delivery value of the electronics industry increased by 27.5% year-on-year, while it fell by 10% in the same period of the previous year. From January to August, the profits achieved by the electronics industry increased by 71.3% year-on-year, compared with a decline of 25.3% in the same period of the previous year.

　　 Due to the low and high bases of various indicators last year, the growth rate of production, export, and profit of the electronics industry has gradually declined this year, but the overall growth rate has remained at a relatively high level. Policies such as strategic emerging industries, triple play, and home appliances to the countryside have played a major role in supporting the rapid development of the electronics industry. It is estimated that the added value of the electronics industry for the whole year will increase by 16% year-on-year, the export delivery value will increase by 25% year-on-year, and the realized profit will increase by 60% year-on-year.

　　From the perspective of main business income, this year’s manufacturing of optoelectronic devices and other electronic devices, integrated circuit manufacturing, semiconductor discrete device manufacturing, applied television equipment and other broadcasting and television equipment manufacturing, communication transmission equipment manufacturing, radar and ancillary equipment manufacturing, electronics The growth rate of industries such as computer peripheral equipment manufacturing has exceeded 40%. In terms of realizing profit, the highest increase this year is in the manufacturing of optoelectronic devices and other electronic devices, integrated circuit manufacturing, semiconductor discrete device manufacturing, electronic vacuum device manufacturing, electronic components and component manufacturing, applied television equipment and other radio and television equipment manufacturing, household appliances Audio equipment manufacturing, communication terminal equipment manufacturing and other industries have increased by more than 100%.