Due to the deleveraging of the virtual economy and the destocking of the real economy, the global economy will enter a deflationary cycle in 2012. The liquidity trap superimposed on the global economy has entered a period of at least five years of low-speed growth or even a mild recession. The sharp drop in demand for non-ferrous metals has led to a potential drop in the price of non-ferrous metals, which will far exceed market expectations.

　　The risk of global economic recovery is rising

　　 While the European economic recession is inevitable, the United States’ economic recovery is not strong enough. In the long run, there will be very low moderate growth in the next five years, and the risk of another recession is also rising. At the same time, China continued to adjust its economic structure in 2012, and its peak growth has passed. Judging from the short-term cycle of the "troika", in addition to the medium- and long-term challenges in 2012, there will also be a decline in exports under the impact of overseas uncertainties, and the real estate market under the impact of "falls in both volume and price". There are two major economic stall risks in investment decline.

　　Effectiveness of loose monetary policy weakened

　　 From a global perspective, in the fourth quarter, most economies turned to monetary easing, but the effect was minimal. Compared with the large-scale release of liquidity in various economies around the world in 2009, the current policy has failed and has fallen into the economy. What is called "liquidity trap" in academics. In terms of fiscal policy, Europe and the United States are committed to reducing fiscal deficits and debts. It is unlikely that large-scale fiscal stimulus policies will be launched, and it is almost impossible for emerging economies such as China to launch large-scale fiscal stimulus policies.

　　The US dollar has established a phased strength

　　 If transaction costs are not considered, participants holding a certain currency or assets linked to this currency are most concerned about the rate of return after risk reduction. At present, money market participants are increasingly convinced that the risk-reduction rate of return of holding the U.S. dollar will be higher than that of other currencies. Due to the European debt crisis and the economic slowdown of emerging economies, especially China’s real estate regulation and cooling economic growth, hot money has flowed out. The currency of emerging economies rotates and depreciates, capital flows back to the United States, depresses U.S. Treasury yields, and helps the U.S. dollar increase against other non-U.S. The appreciation of the currency, and the appreciation of the U.S. dollar is negative for the price of non-ferrous metals denominated in U.S. dollars.

　　The specific varieties are slightly differentiated

　　 copper. The supply has entered a new cycle of rapid growth, the fear of short supply has dissipated, and the growth rate of China's power grid construction slowed down in 2012, the air-conditioning and automobile industries have experienced a year of destocking and adjustment, the real estate continues to be sluggish and the contribution of affordable housing to home appliances is not obvious. , Demand has continued to decelerate since the turning point in 2011. Lun Copper may be hovering between USD 5,600 and USD 6,000, and Shanghai Copper may return to fluctuating within a 10% range of 45,000 yuan/ton.

　　 Aluminum. The westward expansion of production capacity has led to a new round of capacity release and the rich power resources in the west have weakened cost support. European aluminum inventories have set a record, while real estate regulation continues and demand is sluggish. Aluminum may run below the cost line for a long time. Lun Aluminum is estimated to be 1800-2000 The US dollar is hovering in the low range, and Shanghai Aluminum is operating in the 10% range of 15500.

　　 lead. The environmental rectification in 2011 has facilitated the industry concentration, and China's introduction of environmental protection policies such as encouraging electric vehicles will stimulate the recovery of lead-acid batteries in 2012, and the development of wind and solar energy will also stimulate the application of batteries. Lead prices are expected to be relatively resistant to fall in 2012, with LME lead operating at 10% above and below $2,000, while Shanghai lead will be in the 10% upper and lower range of 16000.

　　Zn. The significant release of production capacity in 2012, combined with the rising inventory in 2011, made zinc fundamentals second only to aluminum. The railway infrastructure in 2012 was lower than the "12th Five-Year Plan" estimated annual average of 600 billion yuan. The low-speed growth of China's automobile industry has led to the lack of attention to galvanizing for transportation. The pressure of oversupply has increased and the inventory has been removed. Time extended again. Lun Zinc is expected to operate in the 10% range of 1700 USD, while Shanghai Zinc has been under the cost of 15,000 for a long time.